Original-Research: Bitcoin Group SE (von GBC AG): Buy

Original-Research: Bitcoin Group SE - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Bitcoin Group SE

Unternehmen: Bitcoin Group SE
ISIN: DE000A1TNV91

Anlass der Studie: Research report (Anno) Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 58.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst:

Strengthening in the crisis, safety standards and trust as success factors. Competitive environment clears up, Opportunities for further growth.  
In 2022, Bitcoin Group recorded a significant year-on-year decline in revenues of approximately 67.1% to €8.34 million (PY: €25.39 million). This decline was mainly due to the decreased trading volume on bitcoin.de. Several factors contributed to this decline, including interest rate hikes by major central banks worldwide, which made credit-financed crypto investments more expensive and traditional investment products more attractive. In addition, the Ukraine war, increased inflation, and the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange in November 2022 affected investor confidence in cryptocurrencies and crypto trading exchanges.  
Due to the significant decrease in revenues, Bitcoin Group's EBITDA decreased from €19.75 million (FY 2021) to €1.37 million (FY 2022). The negative result led to a tax income of €1.27 million and a net result of €-2.41 million (PY: €13.37 million).  
Bitcoin Group's equity decreased to €73.35 million as of 12/31/2022 (12/31/21: €151.65 million), mainly due to the price development of the devalued long-term crypto holdings. Nevertheless, the equity ratio increased to over 77.2% (12/31/2021: 73.0%). The company has low interest-bearing liabilities and significant net financial assets of €14.79 million. Crypto holdings decreased to €70.77 million (12/31/21: €181.08 million) due to exchange rate losses, while net crypto holdings after deducting deferred tax liabilities amounted to €54.42 million (12/31/21: €132.43 million). Due to the increase in many cryptocurrencies (June 2023) by about 80% compared to 12/31/2021, we estimate the current crypto holdings to be around €125 million. Taking into account the also increased deferred tax liabilities, we forecast a current net crypto stock of around €100 million. If net crypto holdings are added to cash and cash equivalents, the company currently has an enterprise value of around €45 million, which we believe already represents a significant undervaluation of the company.
 
Bitcoin Group's management expects a slight decline in revenues and a slightly negative EBITDA for the financial year 2023. The exact forecast is difficult due to the current situation (Ukraine war, regulatory uncertainties). Nevertheless, the company sees itself emerging stronger from the challenging market conditions of 2022 and is aiming for EU-wide uniform regulation to drive expansion. The stock-to-flow model shows a positive correlation between the scarcity of Bitcoin and its price. Based on the model, the BTC price is expected to turn bullish in the near future, especially due to the upcoming Bitcoin halving event in 2024. Our revenue forecast for Bitcoin Group is €7.03 million in 2023 and €13.57 million in 2024.
 
Bitcoin Group has canceled the planned acquisition of Bankhaus von der Heydt as it sees no added value for the company and its shareholders. The acquisition had incurred monthly costs, which will affect the result of the fiscal year 2023. According to our forecasts, we expect EBITDA of €-0.08 million in 2023 and €5.31 million in 2024. Net income, according to our estimates, will be €-0.2 million in 2023 and €3.37 million in 2024. There is a possibility that the company will sell part of its crypto equity holdings to take advantage of the negative earnings trend and pay lower taxes on the sale. Such an action would improve net income, but we have not factored this into our guidance. We still expect a dividend of 10 cents to be proposed to shareholders.
 
Based on our DCF model, we have raised our price target to €58.00 (previously: €50.00). The adjustment of the forecast is based on opposing effects in the valuation model. On the one hand, risk-free interest rates have increased, on the other hand, we have slightly adjusted our forecast and since the last valuation in December 2022, cryptocurrencies have again increased significantly. This led to a significant increase in net crypto holdings. Due to the upside potential, we assign a Buy rating.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/27503.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a;11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date and time of completion of the study: 09.08.2023 (12:00) Date and time of the first disclosure of the study: 16.08.2023 (10:00)

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