Original-Research: Bitcoin Group SE (von GBC AG): Buy

Original-Research: Bitcoin Group SE - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu Bitcoin Group SE

Unternehmen: Bitcoin Group SE
ISIN: DE000A1TNV91

Anlass der Studie: Research report (Note) Empfehlung: Buy
Kursziel: 55.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Cosmin Filker

Bitcoin Group SE shows steady progress. Guidance Reaffirmed.  
According to the semi-annual figures for 2023, the company reaffirms its guidance. Bitcoin Group's management projects a rise in registered users to 1,065,000 by the end of 2023, though it anticipates a marginal dip in revenue. Despite the present challenges posed by geopolitical and regulatory uncertainties, the board maintains a positive outlook on the future trajectory. The company's stringent security and transparency standards have fostered trust, aiding in customer base expansion. Furthermore, efforts are underway to establish a consistent EU-wide regulation to bolster growth. To optimize the potential of its burgeoning customer base, Bitcoin Group is strategizing enhancements in user experience and overall functionality.
 
The Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow model, a metric evaluating Bitcoin's scarcity, points toward potential bullish price movements, especially with the anticipated Bitcoin halving event in 2024. A halving event sees the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks slashed by half, consequently limiting the daily influx of new Bitcoins. Historically, such events have often catalyzed Bitcoin price surges, as diminishing supply amidst stable or growing demand can elevate the cryptocurrency's value.  
On the flip side, the dissolved partnership with Fidor Bank might cast a shadow on the revenue prospects for 2023. Nevertheless, Bitcoin Group is actively pursuing a new express trading partner and has entered into promising negotiations to that end.
 
For the fiscal year 2023, our revenue projections remain steadfast at €7.03 million, with an anticipated increase to €13.57 million in 2024.  
In May 2023, Bitcoin Group chose to discontinue its acquisition pursuits of 'Bankhaus von der Heydt', deeming it not beneficial for the company and its stakeholders. This decision brought about extra expenditures, which will be felt in the 2023 financial statements. Given the subdued revenue metrics, our forecast indicates a downturn in the EBITDA for 2023 to -€0.08 million. However, we predict a positive rebound in 2024 with an EBITDA estimate of €5.31 million. This EBITDA trend closely aligns with the anticipated net earnings. For 2023, we project a modest net gain of €0.20 million, with a more robust €3.37 million for 2024. While the company may contemplate selling a portion of its crypto assets to enhance the bottom line, such a move hasn't been factored into our forecasting model.  
Within our DCF valuation model, we determined a new price target of €55.00 (previously: €58.00). Our profit and loss forecasts remained unchanged. However, we assume that the net crypto holdings have decreased from about €100 million to approximately €85 million. Consequently, there was a slight reduction in the target price.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/27821.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a;11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date and time of completion of the report: 28.09.2023 (11:00) Date and time of the first publication of the report: 28.09.2023 (13:00)

-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------

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