Original-Research: publity AG (von GBC AG): Hold

Original-Research: publity AG - von GBC AG

Einstufung von GBC AG zu publity AG

Unternehmen: publity AG
ISIN: DE0006972508

Anlass der Studie: Research report (Anno) Empfehlung: Hold
Kursziel: 20.00 EUR
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 31.12.2024
Letzte Ratingänderung:
Analyst: Matthias Greiffenberger, Marcel Schaffer

publity AG focuses on green growth: 50% ESG-compliant buildings by 2030. The interest rate turnaround is a challenging situation for real estate companies. Participation PREOS reports sharp decline in NAV.  
In fiscal year 2022, publity AG recorded a significant decline in revenues of 83.7% to €4.68 million (PY: €28.75 million). This was due to various challenges, including the interest rate turnaround and the war in Ukraine. The lower number of transactions resulted in less income from finder fees and exit fees. In addition, the reversal of the GORE deal contributed to fees from the Luxembourg deal from the first half of 2022 not being settled. This resulted in lower revenue than originally expected.  
EBITDA decreased to €-23.44 million, compared to €14.6 million in the previous year. In addition to a significant decline in sales, other operating expenses increased by 62.4% to €25.82 million, mainly due to additional expenses of €14.4 million related to a failed deal with a Luxembourg investor.
 
Originally, a net profit of €6 to €10 million was planned, yet the year ended with a high net loss of €192.54 million. This is mainly due to value adjustments on financial assets, in particular PREOS Global Office Real Estate & Technology AG, amounting to €171.38 million, which was characterized by strong price losses, resulting in a corresponding value adjustment. However, in the event of a possible increase in the share price of PREOS, there is the potential for appreciation.  
publity AG plans to position itself as a green asset manager by 2030 and to manage at least 50% ESG-compliant buildings. The company also plans to reduce its CO2 footprint by 50% and become completely climate-neutral by 2030. A new 'Green Advisory' business unit is planned to provide expertise on ESG-compliant building refurbishment.  
For 2023, we expect an increase in sales, despite adverse effects from the interest rate turnaround. We forecast sales of €11.5 million, followed by €15.0 million in 2024 and €20.1 million in 2025, respectively. The guidance calls for a break-even result after taxes, with a slightly positive EBIT. To counteract the current challenges, the company is implementing strict cost management. We expect EBIT of €0.3 million in 2023, followed by €3.32 million in 2024 and €6.64 million in 2025, respectively. We forecast net income at €0.28 million in 2023, €2.39 million in 2024 and €4.71 million in 2025, respectively.
 
As part of our DCF valuation model, we have determined a target price of €20.00 (previously: €46.50). We have allocated the investments in affiliated companies and the loans to affiliated companies to net financial assets. This primarily includes the PREOS investment. The share price of PREOS as of December 30, 2022 was € 3.40 (Xetra), corresponding to a market capitalization of € 385.79 million. Given publity AG's 94.3% stake, this represents a value of €348.82 million on its balance sheet. Our revaluation is based on the latest ad-hoc news from PREOS, according to which devaluations have led to a reduction in equity to €204 million as of December 31, 2022 (December 31, 2021: €418.0 million). In accordance with a participation rate of 94.3%, a value of €192.37 million is attributable to publity AG, which is thus significantly lower than the value recognized in the balance sheet as of December 31, 2022. To determine the fair value of publity AG, we refer to net financial assets of €224.05 million (December 31, 2024), which corresponds to a fair value of €15.06 per share based on the number of shares in publity. Adding the value of the operating business on the basis of the DCF model, we have calculated an overall price target of €20.00 per share and, against the backdrop of the current share price, assign a Hold rating (previously: BUY).

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden: http://www.more-ir.de/d/27445.pdf

Kontakt für Rückfragen
GBC AG
Halderstraße 27
86150 Augsburg
0821 / 241133 0
research@gbc-ag.de
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG und Art. 20 MAR Beim oben analysierten Unternehmen ist folgender möglicher Interessenkonflikt gegeben: (5a;11); Einen Katalog möglicher Interessenkonflikte finden Sie unter: http://www.gbc-ag.de/de/Offenlegung
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Date and time of completion of the study: 01.08.2023 (13:30) German: 29.07.2023 (15:00) Date and time of the first disclosure of the study: 02.08.2023 (10:00) German: 31.07.2023 (11:00)

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