Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name:	tonies SE
ISIN:	LU2333563281
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 18.5
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

US drives H1 eCons beat // strong H2 set-up

tonies delivered a strong Q2, with group revenue of € 117m, +49% yoy (cc) ahead of consensus (€ 108m). TB2 momentum remained exceptional, and figurine demand is accelerating, a reassuring signal for the recurring-revenue engine. The group margin dip (H1 adj. EBITDA margin -1.4pp yoy) was largely due to US tariffs and a product-mix shift toward lower-margin boxes (negative implications partially offset by scale-related efficiency gains in marketing and SG&A).

FCF came in at € -64.3m in H1 (H1 25: € -31.8m), driven by a seasonal inventory build ahead of an unusually front-loaded H2 launch calendar (Bluey, Pokémon, Toniebox Lite). With tonies' sales heavily skewed to Q4, this working capital typically unwinds in H2 as inventory converts to sales, and management continues to guide to positive FY FCF (eNuW: € 29.7m).

North America: the engine keeps accelerating. The US remains the growth driver, up 85% yoy cc in Q2 to € 57m (H1: € 104m, +57% cc). The business case rests on increasing the household penetration (still only around 12%) to harvest high margin figurine revenue later. As part of the Toniebox Lite launch, the company unlocked 800 additional Walmart POS with out-of-aisle placements.

DACH growth in a near-saturated market underpins the TAM story. DACH sales added 23% yoy in Q2 (H1: € 89m, +26% cc), once again proving that even at ~60% household penetration the market is far from tapped. TB2's broadening of the addressable age group to 1-9 years, via My First Tonies and Tonieplay keep adding onto the existing base, while margins expanded strongly (EBITDA margin +7.9pp to 24.4% in H1) marking the region as the group's profitability blueprint.

Rest of World is still in early innings. ROW grew 31% yoy in Q2 (H1: € 50m, +43% cc), led by the UK, France and Australia. Growth here is tracking the early DACH curve, and with two further market launches slated for FY27 and coverage of all major regions targeted by FY30, we continue to see ROW converting into a meaningful contributor over time.

TB2 flywheel spinning, figurines accelerating. Toniebox revenue jumped 76% yoy cc in Q2 (12.6m installed base), a further step-up as TB2's wider age range and Tonieplay keep resonating. More important for the long-term case, figurine sales growth accelerated to 43% yoy cc, the key recurring-revenue metric, confirming that attach behaviour is strengthening as the base grows rather than fading with the hardware cycle. H2 flagship content launches incl. Bluey and Pokémon should enable a strong Q4.

Guidance confirmed and, in our view, cautious. Management reiterated >20% cc group growth (to >€ 760m; eCons € 780m), >30% cc in North America, and a 9-11% adj. EBITDA margin (eCons 10.4%). Given the setup, we see the guidance as more of a floor than a stretch.

Our take: the print confirms the thesis. Growth is compounding rather than maturing, the margin softness is a timing effect that builds tomorrow's high-margin revenue, and each new device and licence widens the moat. With a still-low US and ROW penetration, tonies is on track to become a global icon with strong, capex-light cash generation.

Reiterate BUY with an unchanged € 18.50 PT based on DCF.

You can download the research here: tonies-se-2026-08-21-previewreview-en-4ee0c
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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