Original-Research: tonies SE (von NuWays AG): BUY

Classification of NuWays AG to tonies SE

Company Name:	tonies SE
ISIN:	LU2333563281
Reason for the research:	Update
Recommendation:	BUY
Target price:	EUR 14.5
Target price on sight of:	12 months
Last rating change:
Analyst:	Christian Sandherr

tonies fires on all cylinders; PT Up

tonies released final FY25 figures and its FY26 guidance, underpinning the company’s position as the category leader of screen-free entertainment for kids with the largest customer base worldwide.

FY25 group revenues surged 31% (+36% cc) to € 630m, with every single market posting double-digit growth, carried by the launch of the Toniebox 2 (TB2), the introduction of new product categories (My First Tonies, Tonieplay) and a strong international push (North America +40% cc, RoW +68% cc). More importantly, these impressive growth rates don't come at the expense of profitability: the adj. EBITDA margin expanded 1.1pp to 8.6%, driven by a margin-accretive mix shift toward Tonies figures (+37% yoy, now 71% of revenue) and lower fulfilment (wholesale expansion), licensing (higher tonies originals share) and lower COGS (improved sourcing).

The TB2 launch is a structural catalyst. With an ever expanding installed base (11.8m total boxes sold so far) tonies creating a growing and increasingly recurring revenue opportunity through Tonies figure sales. This is especially true for the TB2 as it targets a much broader age range.

The international expansion story remains one of the most compelling aspects of the investment case. North America continues to broaden beyond distribution wins at Target and Walmart, with DTC momentum and launches like the Ms. Rachel Tonie demonstrating genuine brand depth. Tariff headwinds were absorbed through supply chain agility and selective price increases. In France, tonies became the fastest-growing preschool brand in the country, while the UK installed base crossed 1 million boxes underscoring the repeatability of tonies' market entry playbook.

The FY26 guidance. Management expects >20% cc revenue growth to >€ 760m (eNuW: € +26%), >30% cc in North America (eNuW: 32%), and an adj. EBITDA margin of 9-11% (eNuW: 10%). On the margin side, this implies up to 2.4pp of further expansion from a base where cost discipline is already embedded driven by operating leverage, ecosystem monetization (Tonieplay, accessories), and the compounding attach rate economics of a growing installed base.

The FCF dip to € -12m (from € 33m in FY24) was strategic due to significant inventory build-ups to maximize the TB2 (most significant innovation since 2016), Tonieplay, My First Tonies and Cuddle Tonies launch windows. Over the course of FY26e, this should somewhat normalize (eNuW: € 30m in FY26e). Importantly, the company’s balance sheet comfortably supports this thanks to € 56m of net cash and € 138m of available cash (incl. unused credit lines).

tonies remains a textbook example for a success story. Since 2019, group revenues grew at a 36% CAGR while reaching solid margins and improving cash generation. Yet, the growth story is far from over. While Toniebox activations already span more than 100 countries, tonies has so far pursued dedicated launches in only a handful of markets. Yet the results wherever it has done so have been impressive. This suggests meaningful untapped potential from further country rollouts in the mid-term, with additional detail expected at the Capital Markets Day on June 18th in London.

We hence confirm our BUY rating with a raised € 14.5 (old: € 14) PT based on DCF as we raise our long-term EBIT margin to 11%.
 

You can download the research here: tonies-se-2026-04-15-previewreview-en-ddb22
For additional information visit our website: https://www.nuways-ag.com/research-feed

Contact for questions:
NuWays AG - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Offenlegung möglicher Interessenkonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befindet sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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